By Johnbosco Agbakwuru, Abuja A Non-Governmental Organization Nextier, has predicted that if business continues as usual, Nigeria wi...
By Johnbosco
Agbakwuru, Abuja
A Non-Governmental Organization Nextier, has predicted that
if business continues as usual, Nigeria will fail to achieve its development
goals and the nation’s socio-economic conditions could further degenerate.
According to the prediction, Nigeria probably has the
highest number of poor people globally and remain the “global poverty capital
in 2050,”
Nextier in partnership with the International Institute for
Security Studies (ISS) held a two-day development discourse titled “Nigeria in
2050: Major Player in Global Economy or Poverty Capital,” recently sponsored by
the Canadian Fund for local initiatives.
Using the International Futures Modelling Platform, the
report’s authors, Yeboua Kouassi and Jackie Cillers, modelled what Nigeria
would look like in 2050, given her current policy and environmental conditions.
However, the report discussed an integrated set of
interventions across different sectors that could propel Nigeria to prosperity.
The discourse was held in two formats: a public webinar and
a high-level policy round table. At both events, senior officials from the
government, academia, private sector and international development
organisations explored policy interventions to address Nigeria’s socio-economic
and political challenges.
Participants deliberated on why Nigeria has failed to
implement development plans successfully and to achieve sustained impact.
They explored choices and practical interventions that the
current and incoming government must employ to reverse Nigeria’s downward
trajectory and shape a better future.
Speaking at the round table event, the Canadian high
commissioner, James Christoff, expressed optimism that Nigeria could make
progress given the drive and talent of Nigeria’s young population.
He reiterated Canada’s commitment to supporting Nigeria
towards achieving its development goals.
The Nigeria in 2050 report identified that Nigeria has made
some socio-economic progress but still faces severe social, economic and
security challenges, adding that the nation has one of the highest poverty
rates in the world, given that more than eighty million Nigerians live in
extreme poverty.
The group further noted that Nigeria fared poorly on health,
nutrition and education indices, as shown by its low ranking of 161 out of 189
countries on the United Nations Human Development Index.
The region faces increasing instability from security
challenges such as the high occurrences of banditry, kidnapping, farmer-herder
crises, communal clashes and terrorism, he said.
The authors identified Nigeria’s leadership failure, weak
institutions and policy missteps as one of the reasons for Nigeria’s inability
to achieve its potential. With a score of 1.5 out of a maximum of 5 in 2019,
Nigeria’s low government effectiveness reflects its high corruption level, low
resource mobilisation, inefficiency in spending, poor service delivery and a
weak social contract between the government and the people. Other factors
identified by the report include a rapidly growing population, low human
capital arising from the weak health and education system, deplorable
infrastructure, insecurity, undiversified export, inadequate investments in the
agricultural sector, the macroeconomic instability, and an unstable business
environment
The Nigeria in 2050 report showed that projecting from
current policies and environmental conditions, if bold and transformative
actions are not taken, Nigeria will continue to lag in various economic and
human development indicators. For instance, Nigeria will likely have the
highest number of poor people globally by 2050, with more than 100 million
people.
Pathway to the Desired Nigeria in 2050
The Imagine Nigeria report paints a great picture of Nigeria
we want by 2050. The African Giant Awakes Scenario models a renewed Nigeria
that harnesses its latent, untapped strengths and opportunities. The report
describes a reinforcing pathway towards the envisioned future that revolves
around solving entrenched problems, catalysing environmental innovation,
creating economic opportunity, and a strong leadership and governance system.
Nigeria in 2050 report and participants at the policy discourses highlighted
the following sets of choices and actions that must be taken to create Nigeria
Nigeria Must Strengthen its Governance System: The report
authors and event participants discussed the need for visionary and effective
leadership as a significant factor in achieving a prosperous Nigeria. In
addition, they emphasised the importance of strengthening not just the federal
government but the state and local government. According to them, governance at
the sub-federal tiers is often neglected despite the central role they play in
implementing policy. Also, deemphasising the federal position would make it
less attractive, encouraging genuine political contests and propelling good
leadership.
Civil Service Reforms is Essential to Effective Service
Delivery: Event participants bemoaned Nigeria’s unresponsive civil service
system. They explained that Nigeria must create a more accountable and
transparent recruitment process in the civil service because unqualified civil
servants hinder effective service delivery. Furthermore, they encouraged the
need for Nigerians to have a paradigm shift and adjust the damaging mentality
of choosing ethnic and religious representation over merit.
Nigeria’s Elite Must Reach a Consensus to Invest in
Development: Participants at the event discussed the need for Nigeria’s elite
to gambling on Nigeria’s development. In addition, religious and ethnic
organisations and civil society organisations must utilise their influence to
get the government’s attention, engage the government in meaningful
conversations and hold the government accountable for their actions.
Nigeria’s Government Must Invest in its Human Capital:
Nigeria must invest in human capital to harness the potential of its burgeoning
young population. Investing in human capital involves investing in better
education systems. Such a system involves extending beyond literacy goals to a
focus on skills acquisition and real-world experiences to develop a competitive
workforce that can harness opportunities in the country and compete effectively
in the global economy. Investing in education also leads to well-informed
citizens who can think for themselves and not be manipulated during elections.
High illiteracy and poverty levels leave people vulnerable to manipulation
during elections and decision-making. Investing in human capital also involves
strengthening the health system. Nigeria must improve its health system to
provide quality and affordable health care because robust health is the
foundation for individuals to lead productive and fulfilling lives.
Nigeria’s Government Must Build Resilient Economic
Structures: Participants discussed the need for Nigeria to have a strong
economic structure that makes the economy less vulnerable to changes in the
world’s market. For instance, Nigeria’s past economic recession was due to
shocks in oil prices. Participants encouraged the need to create a diversified
economy primarily through investment in Agriculture. Furthermore, participants
urged the need to invest in new sectors and industries such as technology and
entertainment industries. Diversification of Nigeria’s economy is essential,
especially with the rapid changing world. Diversification will also reduce
import concentration and lead to human capital development.
Other event participants’ suggestions include designing an
incentive system to combat corruption and drive development, consistency in
data used for measurement of development indices, and improving the business
climate, addressing the infrastructure gap and security challenges.
The Nextier Development Discourse is an initiative by
Nextier to catalyse public debate and synthesise action points on pressing
development challenges in the continent.
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