By Abdul Seye As the 2023 general elections gather momentum, the South-East appears not close to realizing its ambition of producing...
By Abdul Seye
As the 2023 general elections gather momentum, the
South-East appears not close to realizing its ambition of producing President
Muhammadu Buhari’s successor or a Vice President.
It could be recalled that the National Executive Committee
of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the highest decision-making body of the
party, had thrown the presidential ticket of the party open, despite the
agitation by the South-East.
The region had hoped that the PDP would consider its loyalty
to the party since 1999. The South-East has always voted for the PDP in all
presidential elections. But the NEC’s decision may have foreclosed South-East
presidential ambition.
In terms of political strength, the South-East aspirants are
not as formidable as the other aspirants from other regions. Hence, there is
the possibility that the region may have to settle for the VP slot.
There is one candidate who has moved across the country,
Peter Obi. The former Governor of Anambra State has visited 35 States across
the country and the FCT, excluding Adamawa, the home State of Atiku Abubakar.
On social media, Mr. Obi has been extremely popular, winning
several polls conducted by different platforms. Over the weekend, some youths
organized a million march for him across the country, with a simple message to
the delegates in the PDP: “Give us Peter Obi.”
It is unclear how the march for Peter Obi will translate
into delegate support, as some of the other candidates have gotten pledges from
governors in some of the States.
Former Vice President Atiku appears to be the favourite;
however, Governor Nyesom Wike of Rivers State has been pulling weight also.
Wike continues to get support from the southwest, notably, Governor Seyi
Makinde and Ayodele Fayose.
The inability of Obi and other South-East candidates to be
the face of the “power must return to the south” campaign, has allowed Mr Wike
to more or less plough his way through.
The decision of Obi not to visit delegates in Adamawa State,
due to respect to Atiku, has once again raised the possibility of Obi settling
for the VP slot, an easier route to presidency for both Obi and the South-East.
However, there are several challenges facing the possibility
of a South-East VP ticket.
Ohanaeze’s threat of
boycott…
One of such is the stance of Ohanaeze Ndigbo that anything
short of a southern candidate will lead to the boycott of the 2023 general
elections.
Mazi Okechukwu Isiguzoro, the Secretary-General of the apex
Igbo group, in a statement published by DAILY POST, said “we will encourage the
southern governors and social cultural groups to mobilize our people and
boycott the 2023 general election in the south, especially in the South-East if
northern candidates should emerge in APC and PDP.”
Unless the region should relax its stance after the party
primary, this may foreclose the possibility of Vice President, considering that
there is great uncertainty on election in the region due to the activities of
IPOB/ESN in the region.
IPOB and insecurity…
Fear of killings by unknown gunmen or ESN could discourage
people. Last month, gunmen attacked INEC ad hoc staff in Nkwo Ihitte Market,
Imo State.
The insecurity with the resultant impact on voting capacity,
may discourage the party from picking a running mate from the South-East. The
region has the least voting strength in 2019 despite Peter Obi being on the
ticket.
The PDP got 1.6 million votes in 2019 against about 403
thousand the ruling party got in that election. Hence, the number may not
support the argument of picking a running mate from the South-East.
Control of PDP
structure…
More so, Peter Obi is struggling to get control of the PDP
in Anambra State. Doyin Okupe, an ally of the former Anambra State Governor
accused the national leaders of manipulating the party.
“It is a matter of regret that despite Peter Obi’s
gentlemanly civil disposition and unwavering commitment to the PDP as a party,
some officials in the National Secretariat of the party don’t accord him the
respect due to him as the leader of the party in Anambra,” he tweeted.
There is another factor highlighted by Okupe, which is
money. According to Okupe, it will cost $10,000 per delegate at the convention.
In the last PDP convention in Port Harcourt in 2019, most delegates went home
with between $8000 & $10,000.
“This year, the figures are bound to be higher. The big
spenders are prepared to go as far as $10,000 per delegate,” he tweeted.
Possible allegiance
by candidates from South-south
In 2018, Governor Wike supported Aminu Tambuwal, but both of
them are in the race for the PDP ticket. In the event of an alliance between
those two, it could be a game changer. Also, an alliance between Emmanuel Udom
and any candidate from the North is also a possibility. There is also rumour
that Governor Ifeanyi Okowa may be interested in the VP slot.
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